The three quarter heavy Chinese economic data will be released next week, or GDP growth is expected

The National Bureau of Statistics will release the main macroeconomic data for the third quarter next Friday. The market generally expects that the economy will run smoothly in the third quarter and GDP growth will be maintained at about 6.7%.
As a leading indicator of the economy, the performance of PMI in September has already been predicted. According to the statistics bureau, the PMI of manufacturing industry in September fell by 0.5 percentage points to 50.8% compared with the previous month, and maintained above 50% for 26 consecutive months. Over the same period, the PMI of non manufacturing industries rose by 0.7 percentage points to 54.9%, the highest in the past three months.
Wen Tao, an analyst at China Logistics Information Center, said that the manufacturing boom slightly declined in September due to the fall in external demand. However, PMI in manufacturing industry has been above the prosperity and decline line for 26 consecutive months, with good economic resilience, relatively high domestic supply and demand, accelerated growth of new momentum, and a stable foundation for economic development in the later period.
According to the non-manufacturing PMI data, in September, the service industry was stable, especially in the financial industry and the productive service industry. The PMI of retail, catering, postal and other industries were all in a high boom range of more than 55%.
With the advent of festival consumption, it is conducive to stable economic growth. Cai Jin, vice president of China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, predicts that in the fourth quarter, policies related to investment stabilization, consumption promotion, tax reduction and fee reduction will continue to boost economic development and provide a basis for stable economic operation.
The National Bureau of Statistics will release major macroeconomic data for September and the third quarter on October 19, including GDP data for the third quarter. From the current institutional forecast, the GDP growth rate in the three quarter is between 6.6% and 6.7%.
Lian Ping, chief economist of the Bank of Communications, believes that the economy grew by 6.6% in the third quarter from a year earlier and by 6.7% in the first three quarters. Economic growth is still facing downward pressure by the end of this year, but it is still resilient.
Li Chao, chief Macro Analyst of Huatai Securities, said that the meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee held at the end of July confirmed that the future active fiscal policy should play a greater role in expanding domestic demand and restructuring, and the growth rate of infrastructure investment in the second half of the year is expected to rebound from that in the first half. The possibility of a rapid decline in GDP growth in the future is low. GDP growth is expected to grow at 6.7% in the third quarter of this year, which is the same as that in the second quarter.
By the Mid Autumn Festival National Day double pull, it is expected that consumption growth will continue to rebound in September. Agencies generally predict that consumption growth will reach 9.6% in September.
“ Mid Autumn Festival this September will stimulate consumption growth in September. In addition, the rebound of profit growth of industrial enterprises in the second quarter will support the income of residents, and the growth rate of consumption of related necessities will rebound. &rdquo, Li Chao said.
It is worth mentioning that September is the peak season of automobile consumption. Analysts generally believe that the negative growth of automobile consumption in the past few months will change. With the effect of reducing automobile import tariffs, the growth rate of automobile consumption in September is expected to turn positive.
Prior to that, a spokesman for the Ministry of Commerce, Gao Feng, at a regular press conference, said that in the second half of the year, the automotive market will continue to grow steadily and new energy vehicles will maintain a relatively high growth rate. China Automobile Circulation Association also predicts that vehicle sales will increase in September this year compared with August.
Consumption contributed nearly 80% to economic growth in the first half of this year, becoming the first driving force for economic growth. In the view of Zhang Jun, chief economist of Morgan Stanley Huaxin Securities, consumption in the third quarter is still the stabilizer of economic growth driven by the growth of service consumption.