Two years later, the chemical fiber industry will usher in a new round of expansion.
Polyester 9 million tons plan to put into operation, PTA capacity growth rate will reach more than 20%!
In recent years, the proportion of PTA production capacity in China has increased year by year, from 25% in 2007 to 56% in 2017, and the growth rate of PTA production in China keeps pace with that of PTA production in the world. 2007-mdash; in 2013, global PTA production capacity developed steadily and rapidly, with an average growth rate of more than 9.5%, while China's PTA production capacity increased by more than 20% in the same period. Mainly in 2011-mdash; in the past few years of 2013, China's PTA capacity explosive growth, Xianglu Petrochemical, Yisheng Petrochemical, Hengli Petrochemical and other products have been expanded, China's PTA capacity has historically exceeded 43 million tons, is the largest PTA producer in Asia and even the world; since 2015, China's PTA capacity growth slowed down, mainly due to Far East Petrochemical. Bankruptcy was declared (involving 3.2 million tons of capacity withdrawing from the market), unexpected explosion of Tenglong aromatic hydrocarbon PX plant (4.5 million tons of capacity of Xianglu Petrochemical Company fell into a state of long-term shutdown pending reorganization, and another 1.65 million tons of old equipment was shut down very early), together with high-cost small devices that other PTA production enterprises had long-term shutdown, after deducting this part of capacity, China's PTA industry is in a state of phased supply and demand.
At present, the peak of PTA industry capacity expansion is temporarily over, 2018-mdash; in 2019, China has no new PTA capacity, but in 2019-mdash; in 2020, China will see PTA capacity expansion again. In the next two years, China's PTA capacity growth rate will reach more than 20%, and global PTA capacity growth rate will reach more than 10%.
China is the largest supplier of
From the global PTA demand distribution, China's PTA demand accounted for 58% of the global demand in 2017, that is to say, China's polyester production capacity accounted for the largest proportion of the global. From the point of view of the growth of PTA and polyester production capacity in China, the overall supply and demand pattern of the downstream polyester Market in 2016 has been significantly improved, 2017-mdash; in 2018, the prosperity of the polyester industry continued to rise, and the profits of polyester products were better, which led to a significant expansion of polyester production capacity. In these two years, the growth rate of polyester production capacity was greater than that of PTA, and in 2017, new polyester production increased. The production capacity is about 4.5 million tons (including the restart of some old plants), and the production plan of polyester is about 6 million tons in 2018, which is expected to be 2019-mdash; there are still about 9 million tons of polyester production plan in 2020.
The development prospects of PTA industry chain are
At the same time, the trade pattern of the global PX market will change after 2020. According to the current PX trade flow, the PX overcapacity of Korea and Japan in Northeast Asia is serious, mainly because the PX consumption of these two countries is in the decline stage, and the surplus PX is mainly exported to China. Especially in South Korea, since the last round of PTA plant centralized production in China, Korean PX exports have increased year by year. At present, about half of China's imports of PX come from South Korea. With the increase of China's PX production capacity in the future, the excess PX production capacity in Northeast Asia can not be digested domestically, and may face the situation of production reduction. At that time, China will be the largest country in the global PTA industry chain in the middle and lower reaches, and the global pricing voice will also be strengthened.
