Consumption is down, and recovery is expected in late 2019 or early 2020
Trend: Consumption is down, and recovery is expected at the end of 2019 or the beginning of 2020 < br />.
(1) Current situation: since 2018, the society has continued to decline, following the opposite trend of nominal and actual society zero in July, August and September, due to the staggering peak of Mid-Autumn Festival, the double eleventh drainage in October, and the dive of clothing retail, the actual stagflation and the zero gap between the nominal society and the nominal society have continued to widen. Per capita disposable income is still in the downward channel. (2) Future: Consumption cycle 2018Q1 hit the top down, in 2018, Merrill Lynch clocks overheating period, stagnation period passed and close to the end, in 2019 Merrill Lynch clocks will spend more than half of the recession period. The recession period will provide more policy space than the stagflation period, while the real estate bottoming time in 2019 will determine the actual start time of the subsequent Post-Real estate cycle of consumer goods and consumption cycle. We expect that the profit growth cycle of industrial enterprises will reach the bottom in the short cycle around the beginning of 2019, which will lead to the recovery of per capita income growth with consumption in late 2019 or early 2020.
Plate discrepancy: consumption trend downward, textile expectations remain stable < br />.
Clothing: downward trend, obvious differentiation. The decrease was narrowed and the differentiation was obvious. Short-term, low-end, strong optional attributes, small cycle elasticity of children's clothing, business and leisure, sports clothing plate fundamentals are superior to other plates, in the long run, high-price, strong optional attributes of women's clothing, high-end clothing plate in 2019 is suitable for early layout. From the perspective of individual stocks, the leading stocks with strong fundamentals and strong denotations are expected to perform better.
Home textiles: narrowing down, giving priority to layout. The decrease is narrower and the pressure on the line is more obvious. Because of the stable competition pattern and obvious Post-Real estate cycle effect, plate opportunities will appear earlier than clothing in 2019.
(3) Textile: The performance is expected to remain stable. Revenue decline narrowed, while benefiting from lower exchange rate and better competition pattern. Major cotton spinning leading listed companies performed better. In the first three quarters of 2018, performance increased quarterly. Gross interest rate increased quarterly. Net interest rate increased for two consecutive quarters. In the long run, the low exchange rate superimposed the bottom of cotton price, and the long-term trend was upward.
Strategy: Embrace barriers and give priority to layout < br />.
(1) Embrace barriers: because of the downward trend of consumption, firstly, the performance of enterprises with obvious competitive barriers will be more stable; secondly, this kind of enterprises will be easier to enhance the concentration during this period; thirdly, this kind of enterprises have strong risk resistance, and the risk of stock price rebound period is smaller.
(2) Priority layout: First, according to the consumption cycle theory, the low price, strong required attributes of children's clothing, mass sector cycle elasticity is small, the downside risk of consumption cycle is smaller; Second, in terms of time, home textiles and women's clothing in the sector are expected to rebound first in late 2019 or early 2020; Third, in terms of stocks, short cycle low point. Because low valuation is the best period for long-term layout industry and clear logic of the company.
Investment advice
Manufacturing leaders have excellent performance and obvious competitive advantages in their fields (Lutai A, Jiansheng Group, Bailong Oriental, etc.) are expected to maintain steady performance in the downstream environment where demand slows down; clothing leaders are downward as a whole, high-quality growth enterprises are better than the leaders as a whole, and store expansion is accelerated (Taiping Bird, Golden Thought, Body, etc.) Yupan Leading Company, Supply Chain Continuous Reform (Taiping Bird, Senma), and High Growth Sub-industry Leading Company (Sports, Children's Wear, Business Leisure) are expected to outperform others.
Nbsp; accordingly, we continue to be optimistic about Morima Clothing, Jiansheng Group, Taiping Bird, Bielefen, Lutai A, Fuanna, Gelis, Bailong Oriental, Anzheng Fashion, Mercury Home Textiles, Lansu Fashion, Lolley Life, Huafu Fashion and Anta Sports, Li Ning, Trebo International, etc.
Risk hints: (1) domestic and foreign downstream consumer demand is sluggish; (2) exchange rate volatility; (3) raw material prices volatility.
