Trend signal of cotton price in 2019: Intention area of cotton planting decreased by 2.7%.
In 2019, the area of cotton planting intention decreased by 2.7%
In December 2018, the Cotton Farmers'Association of China Cotton Association conducted the first survey of cotton planting intention in 2019 among 2799 designated farmers in 12 provinces and Xinjiang Autonomous Region. The results showed that the area of cotton planting intention in China was 47.718 million mu, a decrease of 2.7% compared with the same period last year.
Among them, Xinjiang cotton farmers'planting intention decreased by 2.1%, the Yellow River basin by 4.8%, and the Yangtze River basin by 3.6%.
In 2018, the cotton market remained stable and the output increased steadily, but the uncertainties increased and the purchase price decreased. Cotton farmers'expectations of future market diverged greatly, and their cotton planting intention decreased.
Zhangjiagang: Import Cotton Stock Small Reduction American Cotton Stock Increased
During the week of January 8-14, imported cotton stocks in Zhangjiagang Free Trade Zone decreased slightly from 481 tons to 37195 tons, including 1987 tons of Brazilian cotton, 1429 tons of American cotton, 694 tons of Indian cotton, 2347 tons of Australian cotton, 1576 tons of Cameroonian cotton, and little adjustment of cotton stocks in other countries.
According to statistics, this week Brazilian cotton 11791 tons, Australian cotton 9562 tons, Indian cotton 6957 tons, American cotton 4923 tons, Cameroon cotton 1471 tons, Uzbekistan cotton 927 tons, Mexican cotton 438 tons, Greek cotton 505 tons, Israel cotton 392 tons.
1. The proportion of imported cotton in domestic consumption has increased
The rebound of foreign cotton will help domestic bottom < br />.
With the clearance of national cotton storage stocks in 2019 (excluding rotation), the domestic cotton quota will increase substantially, and the proportion of imported cotton in the total domestic cotton consumption will continue to increase. Based on domestic consumption of 8.5 million tons in 2018 and imports of 1.5 million tons (imports of 1.36 million tons in January-November), the proportion of imported cotton is 17.6%;
Assuming that the quota for 2019 remains unchanged at 894,000 tons, plus the remaining 660,000 tons of sliding duty of 800,000 tons issued in 2018 (estimated), the estimated import volume for 2019 is 1.86 million tons (120+66), and the proportion of imported cotton is 21.8%;
In 2020, the import volume of foreign cotton will reach more than 2.5 million tons, and the proportion of imported cotton will be more than 28%. With the increasing proportion of foreign cotton, the trend of international cotton price will have more and more influence on domestic cotton price, and the international rebound will help the domestic bottom.
2. Indian cotton yield is lower than expected < br />.
Import demand will increase dramatically < br />.
According to CAI forecast, India's cotton export volume is expected to decrease to 900,000 tons this year, which is lower than the 1.1 million tons of the previous year. However, if the export reaches this level, domestic and imported cotton prices will be very strong. This year's consumption is estimated to be 5.5 million tons, which is basically the same as that of the previous year. CAI believes that even if India's cotton exports fall to 900,000 tons, imports will accelerate in the coming months and reach an all-time high.
3. The chemical fibre market is quiet < br />.
Prices of products have hardly fluctuated < br />.
Changshu market: Recently, the transaction volume of polyester filament has been enlarged and the price has been temporarily stable. DTY75D/144F and 120D/192F have acceptable purchasing power. At present, polyester raw material shock adjustment, polyester filament market is expected to have a moderate adjustment trend in the short term.
Shengze Jiaxing: Recently, nylon yarn sales are still acceptable, prices are stable, 40D/24F and 70D/24F nylon-6FDY are completely extinct. Upstream raw material adjustment, it is estimated that the future market nylon filament will have a moderate adjustment trend.
Changxing market: Polyester POY, DTY, FDY prices stable, no fluctuations.
This week, some polyester plants will enter a large-scale shutdown maintenance stage before the Spring Festival. Statistics show that as of last Friday, the enterprises that have introduced the maintenance plan have accumulated to 8.09 million tons, and have entered the maintenance stage to 2.98 million tons.
With the approaching of the Spring Festival, the number of maintenance enterprises will still increase. This also reminds downstream enterprises to pay more attention to the dynamics of supplier startup and shutdown, and to grasp the progress of raw material procurement.
